Just came across Sam Goldman's story on Always On-someone who wants to light up the world with his concept of d.light.And guess what this initiative is to be first rolled out in India.d.light will provide a source of light that is clean and safe;something most of the household in rural hinterlands of india would love to hear.Sam claims in his blog that his source of inspiration was his neighbour's son who was badly burnt by their kerosene lamp.This incident made the 28 year old gradaute from Stanford Business School determined to look for a cheap solution that would provide safety to millions of people around the world as well as employment to many others.In fact,his company is looking for distrbutors of d.light in different parts of India.Anyone interested!
Wishing Sam all the best in his endeavour
It is dedicated to the spirit of free expression of ideas,beliefs,analysis and daily titbits of happenings in and around me.
Monday, December 03, 2007
Saturday, May 13, 2006
Tribute to Alison Krauss

"Alison Krauss" the name itself espouse the feeling of admiration for this child prodigy who at the age of 14 stormed the American country music scene and redefined the acceptability of 'Bluegrass' in American mainstream music.Bluegrass is a type of music considered to be inherited from the immigrants of the British Isles.To the uninitiated it is basically played on stringed instruments using instruments like banjo, fiddle, mandolin, etc to create sound in the highest voice.Alison is considered to be one of the most prolific fiddle player and have won numerous awards at a very tender age.She released her first album"Too late to cry"when she was barely 16 that made headlines across the American country music circuit.But then she teamed up with Union Station to deliver her second album"Two Highways".This created quite a murmer and she went on releasing multiple albums teaming with Union Station.Her devotion to servicing a song is represented by her increasingly restrained approach to fiddle playing and softened vocals.
Alsion Krauss may not be so popular to mainstream Indian music lovers,though the afficianadoes of country music that I have come across (many in Bombay at least!) do surely have heard of her music.Alison is a multi Grammy award winner,winner of more Grammys than any female artist till date.She was awarded the special musical acheivement award by the Recording Industry Association of America.Alison's music is shaped by her interest in timeless songs of sadness, regret, longing and loneliness.
Check out a part of the lyric of her single "It don't matter now"
It's finally come Is that sorry on your breath?
Where were you when I was sitting back here
Missing you to death?
It don't matter now
How, I wanna know Can you tell me plain and true
How high will you fly
Without me there to be your sky?
Do check out one of her breathtaking single " When you say Nothing at All ", that won her the Single of the Year-1995 and have been re-done by many artists till date.You need a Real Player or any other music player to listen to it.So what are you waiting for..
http://www.savefile.com/files/4980908
Wednesday, May 03, 2006
Chief Critic Officer !
Corporations have always had an affinity to give some wonderful names to the top hierarchy...CEO,CSO,CFO,and the list goes on.In fact,Apple's boss Steve Jobs defined his position as iCEO!I was wondering if corporations need to seriously put in some thought of having people like a Chief Critic Officer or CCO(considering my immense love for these ubiquitous jargons!)
I have always found it funny that though we talk about open-culture(how does one define it)but we tend to ignore the discussion of what is wrong with the organization,though this happens to be the favourite gravepine doing rounds the corporate corridors or the canteen or office get-together.
Why can't organizations foster the spirit among employees where they could critize the way things are been run from a strategic or operational point of view.Of course,I only subscribe to the idea of collating their feedback by a responsible authority..maybe the CCO.She should also be responsible in mixing with the customers or masquerading as one of them to find out what the customers think about their organization.This would help the organization to understand the real perception fostered in the minds of the stakeholders.
I have always found it funny that though we talk about open-culture(how does one define it)but we tend to ignore the discussion of what is wrong with the organization,though this happens to be the favourite gravepine doing rounds the corporate corridors or the canteen or office get-together.
Why can't organizations foster the spirit among employees where they could critize the way things are been run from a strategic or operational point of view.Of course,I only subscribe to the idea of collating their feedback by a responsible authority..maybe the CCO.She should also be responsible in mixing with the customers or masquerading as one of them to find out what the customers think about their organization.This would help the organization to understand the real perception fostered in the minds of the stakeholders.
Tuesday, May 02, 2006
Back again!
Back again scribbling in the long forgotten pages of my virtual diary..
I was listening to Anne Murray's You Needed Me and became nostalgic of those days in high school when the lyrics of this song was an anthem for us.Just wanted to scribble a part of the song that I like the most..
To stand alone again
To face the world
Out on my own again
You put me high upon a pedestal
So high that I could almost see eternity...
You held my hand
When it was cold
When I was lost
You took me home
You gave me hope
When I was at the end
And turned my lies
Back into truth again
You even called me friend
Not a better way to restart an innings!
I was listening to Anne Murray's You Needed Me and became nostalgic of those days in high school when the lyrics of this song was an anthem for us.Just wanted to scribble a part of the song that I like the most..
To stand alone again
To face the world
Out on my own again
You put me high upon a pedestal
So high that I could almost see eternity...
You held my hand
When it was cold
When I was lost
You took me home
You gave me hope
When I was at the end
And turned my lies
Back into truth again
You even called me friend
Not a better way to restart an innings!
Wednesday, November 09, 2005
Tuesday, August 30, 2005
Oxymorons!!
Hiya! Came across a set of oxymorons.My fav- the 14th one.And if my grey cells are still tingling don't they teach you that one specifically in a B-School
1. Working Vacation
2. Exact Estimate
3. Honest Lawyer
4. Microsoft Works
5. Definite Maybe
6. Pretty Ugly
7. Terribly Pleased
8. Computer Security
9. Temporary Tax Increase
10. Taped Live
11. Clearly Misunderstood
12. Software Documentation
13. New Classic
14. Business Ethics
1. Working Vacation
2. Exact Estimate
3. Honest Lawyer
4. Microsoft Works
5. Definite Maybe
6. Pretty Ugly
7. Terribly Pleased
8. Computer Security
9. Temporary Tax Increase
10. Taped Live
11. Clearly Misunderstood
12. Software Documentation
13. New Classic
14. Business Ethics
Wednesday, July 27, 2005
Mobile as Oracles
The ubiquitous mobile isn't about communications only but also about"knowing thyself" if the latest reports from MIT experiments is to be believed.From knowing how much sleep you had last week to how much money you spent on your girlfriend,the mobile seems to have captured the imagination with a lot of possibilities.Experiments are already on its way to study of work patterns of how employees in an organization work with the help of mobile phones.It could go a long way in putting an end to the evaluation metrics used by organizations,which may not have been the best indicator for knowing your people.Any takers!!
Back from my sabba!
It has been quite a lull since I have last written as perhaps my thoughts have reached a level of stagnation.Or perhaps circumstances plays a part in making it so.After all it is the environment which makes you to come out with new things and see the changes happening around you.Or should I better stop cribbing and do something useful..
Monday, June 20, 2005
Google into e-payment too!
The news of Google entering into e-payment business must be something of a news to most of us and it just makes me wonder what else it is going to be in next.This also raises the point of what would Google,the quintessential "search" site would start calling itself since it has staretd moving into the turfs of Microsoft(with its desktop search product) to e-bay(if e-pay starts).Its strange that e-bay ( it had acquired Paypal only sometime back with an astronomical sum) which is one of the biggest advertiser in Google would react to this news. Also Google would slowly start infringing into the territory of established players like Visa and Mastercard.Of course, it does make big business sense for Google to be in a business which would generate revenues for the e company whose revenues of over a billion till date has been dependent on entirely advertising revenues.But it would also face stiff competition in a field which already has a lot of established players.With e business picking up and broadband penetration opening up markets in countries like India and China,this space is going to be a hotly contested one in the coming years.Watch out this space for more.
Thursday, June 16, 2005
India vs China -Software Story
The Mckinsey Study on China's Software Industry presents the finer point on where the industry stands right now and should silent people who is ever ready to jump into a discussion on India-China competition syndrome which has gripped the academecians and professionals alike.
The study shows that China's software industry is years behind that of India.Only 6 out of the top 30 IT services companies are CMM Level 4 or 5, whereas alomost all the top companies are certified in case of India.Also the top 10 IT Services company commands a market of only 20% compared to almost 50% in case of India.The industry needs a lot of consolidation and a proper industry body to support the growth.But the major problem in China still remains with piracy,where most of the software developed for domestic companies are available in the streets.
It is true that China has better infrastructure compared to India, but India boasts of superior human capital and processes,which is what drives any services industry.The industry also has better processes and a globally proved delivery model,it would indeed be years till China catch up with India.
Now did I hear the sceptics murmuring?
The study shows that China's software industry is years behind that of India.Only 6 out of the top 30 IT services companies are CMM Level 4 or 5, whereas alomost all the top companies are certified in case of India.Also the top 10 IT Services company commands a market of only 20% compared to almost 50% in case of India.The industry needs a lot of consolidation and a proper industry body to support the growth.But the major problem in China still remains with piracy,where most of the software developed for domestic companies are available in the streets.
It is true that China has better infrastructure compared to India, but India boasts of superior human capital and processes,which is what drives any services industry.The industry also has better processes and a globally proved delivery model,it would indeed be years till China catch up with India.
Now did I hear the sceptics murmuring?
Tuesday, May 17, 2005
Isn't this the Future??
Did I tell you this is where the future of business is??
The elephant can really dance.Since realizing its mistakes and its near debacle in the 80's ,Big Blue have taken a lot of initiative to stay at the forefront of change.It emacipated Linux at a time when most of its peers were sceptical of the open source OS.It has since then reduced its costs by many folds.Looking at the viral nature of Blogs and the possibilities it presents,the company has taken the initiative to ask its internal employees of more than 300,000 to engage in internal branding for itself,if one would call it so.It's no wonder why Indian companies are not adopting such strategies on a corporate level to position their products which would expose them to a much bigger audience at an expense which would be negligible.The marketing and PR departments should explore the various possibilities available today to reach its target segment rather than sticking to the traditional way of doing things which is becoming obsolete anyway.Is anybody listening ??
The elephant can really dance.Since realizing its mistakes and its near debacle in the 80's ,Big Blue have taken a lot of initiative to stay at the forefront of change.It emacipated Linux at a time when most of its peers were sceptical of the open source OS.It has since then reduced its costs by many folds.Looking at the viral nature of Blogs and the possibilities it presents,the company has taken the initiative to ask its internal employees of more than 300,000 to engage in internal branding for itself,if one would call it so.It's no wonder why Indian companies are not adopting such strategies on a corporate level to position their products which would expose them to a much bigger audience at an expense which would be negligible.The marketing and PR departments should explore the various possibilities available today to reach its target segment rather than sticking to the traditional way of doing things which is becoming obsolete anyway.Is anybody listening ??
Tuesday, May 03, 2005
Qwest VS Verizon
The recent Qwest Vs Verizon fiasco to obtain MCI has evoked interest in the financial and the M&A sector in a big way.The confusion of the shareholders of MCI and the fluctuating decisions of the board all added up to the interest of who would bag the once venerable telecommunications company,till it made news for all the wrong reasons.It is a positive step that MCI board has decided to stick to the revised Verizon's offer of $26.For every MCI share, Verizon's revised offer works out to $26, comprising $5.60 in cash plus the greater of either 0.5743 Verizon share or stock valued at $20.40. (A previous Verizon offer totaling $23.10 had raised a lot of eyebrows when Verizon paid $25.72 per share for more than 40 million shares owned by entities affiliated with MCI's largest shareholder, Carlos Slim.It seems the MCI shareholders would benefit from the prospect of rising of Verizon's stock prices in the long run if the deal goes through.Though,Qwest have brushed aside the deal calling it to be lopsided against the MCI shareholders,but it would definitely bring an end to the speculations surrounding the acqusition.
Only time would tell if the acqusition had really been successful from the MCI shareholders point of view.
Only time would tell if the acqusition had really been successful from the MCI shareholders point of view.
Friday, April 22, 2005
Talent- Myth or Reality
Its nice to be back after a pretty long time though now as an employee rather than of a student.So have to check out for any controversial comments !!
Recently read Gladwell's "The Talent Myth" article which appeared in The New Yorker asometimes back.Gladwell in his mastery form of writing argues against the Talent myth grappling the boardrooms of America and for which the business is paying for very dearly.
This is an article which portrays his strong ire against the way consulting firms like Mckinsey works.Indian companies could learn a lot from the mistakes of the American Model of Talent Search and simply avoid following the American tail.
Read this article at:
http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_07_22_a_talent.htm
Recently read Gladwell's "The Talent Myth" article which appeared in The New Yorker asometimes back.Gladwell in his mastery form of writing argues against the Talent myth grappling the boardrooms of America and for which the business is paying for very dearly.
This is an article which portrays his strong ire against the way consulting firms like Mckinsey works.Indian companies could learn a lot from the mistakes of the American Model of Talent Search and simply avoid following the American tail.
Read this article at:
http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_07_22_a_talent.htm
Thursday, March 24, 2005
Value Chain Revamped
"One cannot control change, one has to stay ahead of it"
--- Peter Drucker
Today was the last day of our academic calendar and the entire campus was spread with a lot of emotions, as we would bid adieu to each other after staying as a family for almost for the last couple of years. Everyone was clicking photographs with their digital cameras or digicams, who could cherish these nostalgic moments in the future. Looking at all these events, an issue, which is the topic for our project today suddenly struck us, what would happen to those people who are at the periphery of such changes? The revolution of Digital Image Processing. This change would affect mostly the chemical based film technology businesses of those ubiquitous corner shop studios, who would have to change their business models faster than its competitor to survive in this changing landscape.
PHOTO SHOOTS----- DEVELOPMENT-----CUSTOMER (Previous Value Chain)
DEVELOPMENT----- CUSTOMER (Future Value Chain)
Any ideas are welcome..........
--- Peter Drucker
Today was the last day of our academic calendar and the entire campus was spread with a lot of emotions, as we would bid adieu to each other after staying as a family for almost for the last couple of years. Everyone was clicking photographs with their digital cameras or digicams, who could cherish these nostalgic moments in the future. Looking at all these events, an issue, which is the topic for our project today suddenly struck us, what would happen to those people who are at the periphery of such changes? The revolution of Digital Image Processing. This change would affect mostly the chemical based film technology businesses of those ubiquitous corner shop studios, who would have to change their business models faster than its competitor to survive in this changing landscape.
PHOTO SHOOTS----- DEVELOPMENT-----CUSTOMER (Previous Value Chain)
DEVELOPMENT----- CUSTOMER (Future Value Chain)
Any ideas are welcome..........
Wednesday, February 23, 2005
American Telecom Act-Rehauled!
The Telecommunications and Cable industry is set to see a lot of changes if Mr.Stevens,Chairman of Senate Commerce has his way in changing the Telecommunication laws of 1996 which have been deemed archaic with the advent of Internet.Do definitely read this article at this link:
http://www.capitaleye.org/inside.asp?ID=156
http://www.capitaleye.org/inside.asp?ID=156
Earn while you play!
Top Ten Earners in World Football 2003-04
1. Manchester United (171.5)
2. Real Madrid (156.3)
3. AC Milan (147.2)
4. Chelsea (143.7)
5. Juventus (142.4)
6. Arsenal (115 million)
7. Barcelona (112)
8. Inter Milan (110.3)
9. Bayern Munich (110.1)
10.Liverpool (92.3)
Look at the largest corporations in the history of sports.And who said capitalism and sports doesn't work?
1. Manchester United (171.5)
2. Real Madrid (156.3)
3. AC Milan (147.2)
4. Chelsea (143.7)
5. Juventus (142.4)
6. Arsenal (115 million)
7. Barcelona (112)
8. Inter Milan (110.3)
9. Bayern Munich (110.1)
10.Liverpool (92.3)
Look at the largest corporations in the history of sports.And who said capitalism and sports doesn't work?
Thursday, February 10, 2005
Yet another failed merger!
The departure of Carly Fiorina from HP marks yet another failure in the world of mergers.She was the one who pushed desparately for the HP Compaq deal to happen inspite of facing stiff resistance from Walter Hewitt(who must be all smiles now).Her departure marks the failure of the deal which never hepled in streamling its businesses or gain an advantage against its rivals like IBM or Dell.It vindicates Mr.Hewitt opposition to the merger .
It is to be seen whether the company remains the same as it was or moves into different forms of business.Already,HP has moved in a big way into services due to stiffer competition in its traditional businesses.Also,the growth in its traditional businesses have been quite stagnant for sometime.The merger had never been able to bring in any value to its stockholders.She had perhaps failed to execute the strategy or the strategic intent itself was not clear,which had the support of the board anyway.It would be exciting to see what is done to propel this innovative company to the next round of growth.This thing is for sure -it would not be a cakewalk for the new leadership to design a strategy which would work that easily.
Lets see where the tide flows!
It is to be seen whether the company remains the same as it was or moves into different forms of business.Already,HP has moved in a big way into services due to stiffer competition in its traditional businesses.Also,the growth in its traditional businesses have been quite stagnant for sometime.The merger had never been able to bring in any value to its stockholders.She had perhaps failed to execute the strategy or the strategic intent itself was not clear,which had the support of the board anyway.It would be exciting to see what is done to propel this innovative company to the next round of growth.This thing is for sure -it would not be a cakewalk for the new leadership to design a strategy which would work that easily.
Lets see where the tide flows!
Wednesday, January 19, 2005
Its very difficult to look in the silver globe and predict the future especially in this changing times.And that in the field of technology is unthinkable! But its more difficult to prognosize what would not happen in the next twelve months in this field and that too about the technology and issues which looks most promising to us now.Bob has done a wonderful work as a prognosticator and time will decide whether it has really happened the way he had gazed .
The five things which he says would never happen in the next twelve months are:
>Linux becomes a force on the desktop.
>Filtering software finally beats spam.
>RSS becomes the next Killer App.
>The IT spending “slump” ends.
>Offshore outsourcing becomes a hot political issue.
Do read this article:
http://techrepublic.com.com/5100-22_11-5532343.html?tag=search
The five things which he says would never happen in the next twelve months are:
>Linux becomes a force on the desktop.
>Filtering software finally beats spam.
>RSS becomes the next Killer App.
>The IT spending “slump” ends.
>Offshore outsourcing becomes a hot political issue.
Do read this article:
http://techrepublic.com.com/5100-22_11-5532343.html?tag=search
Wednesday, January 05, 2005
Inflation an indicator of false prosperity
This seems to be the most debated and hackneyed debate raging from the corporate boardrooms to B Schools to the ubiquitous coffee house.THE CHINESE DRAGON!
But the article below throws the interesting dilemma of forceful supression from appreciation of the yuan by the chinese government and the impact of such measure on the global front,especially the US and the effect on this on its domestic economy.Is this prosperity being discussed by the common people to the academicians worldwide sustainable over a long period of time or is it going to bust up sometime very soon?I believe the reality will come come out sooner than later and China would not seem to be the exciting Dragon as it seems to be on the papers until the government takes in some corrective measures.
Time would only present the true picture and tell us whether such policies by the state sponsored capitalist country could be applicable to other nations or not.
The debate continues and this article presents just the tip of the glacier.
China’s recent wave of inflation has exposed the false prosperity of the country’s economic growth during Jiang Zemin’s decade-long rule, says Jiang Zhongnan, a member of the German Economic Association and a senior economist, in a recent interview.
Jiang believes that Yuan should be devalued because, under a government policy of financial expansion and increased bank loans, real production is less than the money supply and serious corruption runs rampant in all levels of government as well as large- and medium-sized state enterprises.
Jiang said that 13 years ago, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the Agricultural Bank of China, the China Construction Bank, and the Bank of China had a combined net asset of 13 trillion yuan. Since then, over 100,000 state enterprises have gone bankrupt and have taken bank loans down with them. The net assets of these banks have been all but completely depleted because of bad loans.
The banks still have a large sum of money, including individual deposits of about ten trillion yuan. But, according to internal reports, over four trillion Yuan in individual deposits are in accounts with assumed names and are likely from embezzlement and bribery. Since August, many rich depositors have started to withdraw money and move funds overseas, as the Chinese government started a new round of crackdowns on corruption.
Jiang said that these banks have been struggling under mountains of bad loans and that technically their net assets are now negative. Many people trust state-owned banks and don’t realize that these banks are no longer secure. In an unpublished speech, former Premier Zhu Rongji said that the Chinese banking system needs 800 billion yuan to ensure liquidity. If there were an inflation-triggered run on the banks, the banks would be forced to close.
He predicts that the prices of goods in China will continue to rise, resulting in hyperinflation by the end of the year. A vicious cycle will lead to a 50% increase in the overall prices by the first quarter of next year.
Jiang explained his views from the following angles:
The Yuan Was Overvalued And Its Depreciation Has Just Begun
The prices of basic necessities, industrial raw materials such as iron, steel and real estate have risen in China this year. The real estate price hikes have been the most dramatic, with a three-fold increase in cities such as Qingdao, Dalian, Shanghai and Beijing in just 3 years. The steel price is 40% higher compared to a year ago. The prices of basic necessities such as rice, flour, and cooking oil have risen 20-50% in big cities such as Beijing. Looking at it in another way, the Yuan has lost value. It is estimated that this year alone, the Yuan has devalued by 20%.
The Chinese economy enjoyed a golden era between 1995 and 1998 but has gone downhill since 1999. The government has beautified big and medium-sized coastal and inland cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Qingdao to a splendor never seen before, but at what cost? The beautiful cities were constructed with the blood and sweat of workers and peasants as well as with foreign investments. These cities are display windows that demonstrate to both Chinese and foreigners how wonderful China has become.
The propaganda apparatus has been heaping praises on the Chinese economy. As a case in point, the U.S. government suggested to the Chinese counterpart that the Yuan should have market-based floating exchange rates because the current fixed exchange rates have caused seriously unfair competition in the world trade. Yet the Chinese propagandists distorted the suggestions to their favor and interpreted the U.S. criticism into a supposed high regard of the Yuan in the world market and a push for appreciation of the latter. The truth is that the Yuan is overvalued and would depreciate in view of the economic reality in China. The current wave of inflation reflected some, but not all, of the reality that points to a possible need to depreciate the Yuan.
Inflation Will Continue And Runs On Banks Hard To Avoid
The price hikes in China have been tolerable so far. However, the prices will continue to rise due to chain-reactions. For example, the sugar price will go up when the raw agricultural materials for making sugar become more expensive. Higher raw steel prices will push up the prices of steel products. If the government is unable to stop the chain reactions, the latter could lead to a vicious cycle. It is estimated that the inflation will become serious by December and the prices will go up 50% in the first quarter of next year.
As the prices go up, individuals are likely to withdraw money to buy things. More seriously, even factories and businesses will accelerate their purchases of raw materials. The buying sprees would cause liquidity problems for banks and purchasers would then be unable to pay. Of course, the government could take harsh measures such as restricting bank withdrawals by individuals and businesses.
Serious corruption has lead to ballooning government expenditures and heavy debts. All levels of government in China spend a lot of money each year; dining, wining, and even sightseeing have consumed large amounts of government funds. In 1998, the State Bureau of Auditing found that central and local governments, state-owned enterprises, and local government-owned enterprises spent one trillion Yuan in cash, when the GDP of China was only 8.5 trillion Yuan.
Severe and systemic corruption in China is truly astounding. Under an expansionist fiscal policy, large amounts of funds have been swallowed by corruption instead of being used for increasing production. Local governments waste huge amounts of money and resources by starting many inefficient and redundant projects, which lead to high production and economic growth with unsold products piling up.
Jiang Zhongnan believes that the Chinese government has been borrowing from the future assets of citizens by liberally issuing long-term and short-term national bonds to fill the widening budgetary deficit gaps.
Corruption, creative accounting, and other potential crises have been plaguing the government, businesses, and banks. The state enterprises have been trying to transfer their problems to banks or the stock markets. False numbers have diluted the GDP. Beautiful skyscrapers in big cities and official positive propaganda had covered up these serious problems, which are beginning to rear their heads in the current wave of inflation.
But the article below throws the interesting dilemma of forceful supression from appreciation of the yuan by the chinese government and the impact of such measure on the global front,especially the US and the effect on this on its domestic economy.Is this prosperity being discussed by the common people to the academicians worldwide sustainable over a long period of time or is it going to bust up sometime very soon?I believe the reality will come come out sooner than later and China would not seem to be the exciting Dragon as it seems to be on the papers until the government takes in some corrective measures.
Time would only present the true picture and tell us whether such policies by the state sponsored capitalist country could be applicable to other nations or not.
The debate continues and this article presents just the tip of the glacier.
China’s recent wave of inflation has exposed the false prosperity of the country’s economic growth during Jiang Zemin’s decade-long rule, says Jiang Zhongnan, a member of the German Economic Association and a senior economist, in a recent interview.
Jiang believes that Yuan should be devalued because, under a government policy of financial expansion and increased bank loans, real production is less than the money supply and serious corruption runs rampant in all levels of government as well as large- and medium-sized state enterprises.
Jiang said that 13 years ago, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the Agricultural Bank of China, the China Construction Bank, and the Bank of China had a combined net asset of 13 trillion yuan. Since then, over 100,000 state enterprises have gone bankrupt and have taken bank loans down with them. The net assets of these banks have been all but completely depleted because of bad loans.
The banks still have a large sum of money, including individual deposits of about ten trillion yuan. But, according to internal reports, over four trillion Yuan in individual deposits are in accounts with assumed names and are likely from embezzlement and bribery. Since August, many rich depositors have started to withdraw money and move funds overseas, as the Chinese government started a new round of crackdowns on corruption.
Jiang said that these banks have been struggling under mountains of bad loans and that technically their net assets are now negative. Many people trust state-owned banks and don’t realize that these banks are no longer secure. In an unpublished speech, former Premier Zhu Rongji said that the Chinese banking system needs 800 billion yuan to ensure liquidity. If there were an inflation-triggered run on the banks, the banks would be forced to close.
He predicts that the prices of goods in China will continue to rise, resulting in hyperinflation by the end of the year. A vicious cycle will lead to a 50% increase in the overall prices by the first quarter of next year.
Jiang explained his views from the following angles:
The Yuan Was Overvalued And Its Depreciation Has Just Begun
The prices of basic necessities, industrial raw materials such as iron, steel and real estate have risen in China this year. The real estate price hikes have been the most dramatic, with a three-fold increase in cities such as Qingdao, Dalian, Shanghai and Beijing in just 3 years. The steel price is 40% higher compared to a year ago. The prices of basic necessities such as rice, flour, and cooking oil have risen 20-50% in big cities such as Beijing. Looking at it in another way, the Yuan has lost value. It is estimated that this year alone, the Yuan has devalued by 20%.
The Chinese economy enjoyed a golden era between 1995 and 1998 but has gone downhill since 1999. The government has beautified big and medium-sized coastal and inland cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Qingdao to a splendor never seen before, but at what cost? The beautiful cities were constructed with the blood and sweat of workers and peasants as well as with foreign investments. These cities are display windows that demonstrate to both Chinese and foreigners how wonderful China has become.
The propaganda apparatus has been heaping praises on the Chinese economy. As a case in point, the U.S. government suggested to the Chinese counterpart that the Yuan should have market-based floating exchange rates because the current fixed exchange rates have caused seriously unfair competition in the world trade. Yet the Chinese propagandists distorted the suggestions to their favor and interpreted the U.S. criticism into a supposed high regard of the Yuan in the world market and a push for appreciation of the latter. The truth is that the Yuan is overvalued and would depreciate in view of the economic reality in China. The current wave of inflation reflected some, but not all, of the reality that points to a possible need to depreciate the Yuan.
Inflation Will Continue And Runs On Banks Hard To Avoid
The price hikes in China have been tolerable so far. However, the prices will continue to rise due to chain-reactions. For example, the sugar price will go up when the raw agricultural materials for making sugar become more expensive. Higher raw steel prices will push up the prices of steel products. If the government is unable to stop the chain reactions, the latter could lead to a vicious cycle. It is estimated that the inflation will become serious by December and the prices will go up 50% in the first quarter of next year.
As the prices go up, individuals are likely to withdraw money to buy things. More seriously, even factories and businesses will accelerate their purchases of raw materials. The buying sprees would cause liquidity problems for banks and purchasers would then be unable to pay. Of course, the government could take harsh measures such as restricting bank withdrawals by individuals and businesses.
Serious corruption has lead to ballooning government expenditures and heavy debts. All levels of government in China spend a lot of money each year; dining, wining, and even sightseeing have consumed large amounts of government funds. In 1998, the State Bureau of Auditing found that central and local governments, state-owned enterprises, and local government-owned enterprises spent one trillion Yuan in cash, when the GDP of China was only 8.5 trillion Yuan.
Severe and systemic corruption in China is truly astounding. Under an expansionist fiscal policy, large amounts of funds have been swallowed by corruption instead of being used for increasing production. Local governments waste huge amounts of money and resources by starting many inefficient and redundant projects, which lead to high production and economic growth with unsold products piling up.
Jiang Zhongnan believes that the Chinese government has been borrowing from the future assets of citizens by liberally issuing long-term and short-term national bonds to fill the widening budgetary deficit gaps.
Corruption, creative accounting, and other potential crises have been plaguing the government, businesses, and banks. The state enterprises have been trying to transfer their problems to banks or the stock markets. False numbers have diluted the GDP. Beautiful skyscrapers in big cities and official positive propaganda had covered up these serious problems, which are beginning to rear their heads in the current wave of inflation.
Wednesday, December 29, 2004
THE FUTURE OF CAPITALISM!
This is actually not the book review of the famous economist Lester Thurow, but something very closely realted to his favourite subject-The American economy.These are some of the lesser known facts about the reatailing giant Wal Mart and how it could/is influencing the economy of the world's richest nation.It 's quite awesome that how a small retail chain of the 70's could go on to become the monolith which could control an entire eco system of supplier, distributor, and customers spread across the goegraphies of this world.
Some stats of WAL MART are as under:
Some stats of WAL MART are as under:
- 100 million: The number of people who shop at Wal-Mart's 3400 American stores every week.
- 1.2 million: The number of Wal-Mart associates in the U.S. Any full- or part-time Wal-Mart employee, up to and including the CEO, is considered an "associate," in Wal-Mart parlance. Internationally, Wal-Mart employs an additional 330,000 associates.
- 600,000: The number of new employees Wal-Mart hires each year. The company's turnover rate is 44 percent -- close to the retail industry average.
- $256 billion : Wal-Mart's sales in 2003. In the words of Wal-Mart CFO Tom Schoewe, Wal-Mart's sales are equal to "one IBM, one Hewlett Packard, one Dell computer, one Microsoft and one Cisco System -- and oh, by the way, after that we got $2 billion left over."
- $9.98: The average full-time hourly wage for a Wal-Mart employee. The average full-time hourly wage in metro areas (defined as areas with a population of 50,000 or more) is $10.38. In some urban areas it is higher: $11.03 in Chicago, $11.08 in San Francisco, and $11.20 in Austin.
- $15 billion: The amount of Chinese products Wal-Mart estimates it imports each year; others suggest the number may be higher.As someone told, WAL MART'S JV WITH CHINA.
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